Issuing Body: APIMA Research & Statistics Center
Survey Period: January 2026 – March 2026
Sample Scope: Over 850 manufacturing enterprises across 18 major economies in the Asia-Pacific region, covering sub-sectors including Electronics, Automotive, Machinery, Chemicals, and Textiles (encompassing large, medium, and small enterprises).
Calculation Benchmark: The index uses 50% as the Boom-Bust Line (Neutral Point). >50% indicates expansion/optimism; <50% indicates contraction/pessimism.
I. Core Data Overview
1. APIMA Composite Manufacturing Confidence Index (AMCI): 52.8
(Up 1.3 points from 51.5 in Q4 2025. The index has remained in the expansion territory for three consecutive quarters, indicating a moderate recovery in overall sentiment within Asia-Pacific manufacturing.)
2. Core Readings of Sub-Indices:
- New Orders Index: 53.5 (Demand side continues to recover, with export orders contributing significantly.)
- Production Expectations Index: 54.1 (Enterprises maintain active production scheduling plans.)
- Supply Chain Resilience Index (APIMA Proprietary): 51.2 (Assessment of corporate supply chain anti-disturbance capabilities returns above the neutral line for the first time.)
- Green Digitalization Investment Index: 55.6 (Record high, driven by carbon compliance and smart factory upgrades.)
- Employment & Labor Index: 49.8 (Remains in contraction territory, reflecting ongoing automation substitution and skill mismatches.)
II. Regional and Sectoral Perspectives
1. Divergence in Regional Performance:
- East Asia (China, Japan, South Korea): Composite Index 53.5. Primary drivers stem from robust capital expenditure in high-end equipment, the new energy industry chain, and semiconductor equipment. Demand for "smart factory" upgrades in China remains strong.
- Southeast Asia (Vietnam, Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia): Composite Index 52.1. Orders for electronics assembly and automotive parts are sufficient due to relocation, though some enterprises are constrained by power stability and rising logistics costs.
- South Asia (India): Composite Index 56.3 (Highest in the region). Benefits from a massive domestic demand market, active FDI inflows, and the global competitiveness of the pharmaceutical and textile sectors.
2. Sector Performance:
- High-Growth Tracks: New Energy Vehicles (NEV) & Lithium Batteries (Index 58.2), Industrial Robotics & Automation (57.4), Semiconductors (56.8).
- Under Pressure Tracks: Traditional Textiles & Apparel (48.5), Low-end Furniture Manufacturing (47.9). These sectors face the dual pressures of order diversion to lower-cost emerging locations and green trade barriers.
III. Key Findings and Business Concerns (Qualitative Summary)
1. The "Asia+1" Supply Chain Network Takes Shape:
Over 60% of surveyed multinational manufacturing enterprises indicated that their regional supply chain layout has shifted from a "Single China + Backup" model to a "Multi-Node (e.g., China + Vietnam + India) Mesh Collaboration" structure. The application of the APIMA-STD-MDI data standard was cited as facilitating "plug-and-play" scheduling of cross-border production capacity.
2. AI and Automation Become "Mandatory" Rather Than "Optional":
Against the backdrop of rising labor costs and an aging workforce, 75% of enterprises plan to increase budgets for "Embodied Intelligent Robots" or "AI Agent Scheduling Systems" in 2026. Expectations for the application of humanoid robots in long-tail processes within the automotive and electronics industries are heating up.
3. Carbon Compliance (CBAM, etc.) Forces Green Automation Investment:
Export-oriented enterprises (particularly in steel, aluminum, chemicals, and plastics) are accelerating the deployment of production-line-level energy monitoring and Product Carbon Footprint (PCF) data collection systems, viewing them as a "trade passport" essential for maintaining export competitiveness.
4. Major Risk Points:
- Supply instability of key minerals (lithium, rare earths, chip materials) due to geopolitical disturbances.
- Recovery in developed market demand falling short of expectations.
- Bottlenecks in power and digital infrastructure in parts of the region.
IV. Q2 2026 Outlook
Based on the Future Expectations Sub-Index reading of 54.3 in Q1 2026, APIMA anticipates that Asia-Pacific manufacturing will continue its moderate expansion trend in the second quarter of 2026. Key variables to watch include:
- Actual order fluctuations following the official imposition of EU CBAM taxes;
- The impact of the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy on capital outflows from emerging markets;
- The pace of infrastructure follow-up (especially power and data centers) within ASEAN.
"Data is not just a dashboard; it is a navigation system. On the complex course of the dual-track transition (Green + Digital), quantifying confidence is just as important as quantifying resilience."
— APIMA Chief Economist